Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
3
(15.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
9-5-0
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1238
· median 1159
· range 1123–1432
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1143
Q3 1269
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 15.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.1 |
| Wind Allies | 15.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.4% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
